Since the onset of coronavirus in the U.S., sales results for the dairy, deli and bakery departments have been decidedly mixed. According to IDDBA latest report, while dairy has emerged as a sales leader and the packaged baked goods aisle is doing well, the limited service, assortment and/or shutting down of bakery and deli counters across many stores have had severely negative impact on sales in areas like deli prepared food, made-to-order cakes and other indulgent bakery items.
For the week ending April 19, total dairy sales were up 16.4% year over year while fresh bakery was down 3.9% (its first negative weekly showing since IDDBA began the reports at the end of February) and total deli sales plummeted by 25.5% year over year, a distressing trend that began in late March with consecutive double-digit sales drops every week.
DAIRY
For dairy, sales gains have been in double digits over the comparable week in 2019 for six weeks in a row. Gains for the week ending April 19 were up 16.4%, driven by continued high interest in milk, cheese, egg, butter and creamers. These same items have been in high demand ever since the panic-buying week of March 15 when dairy sales were up 60% over a year ago.
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“Quarantine baking is a thing, whether as a way to entertain the kids, enjoy a little indulgence, learn a new skill or cope with stress during these difficult times,” said Abrielle Backhaus, research coordinator with IDDBA. “For that matter, ‘insourcing’ altogether is a big quarantine trend, as consumers are learning to live without their daily coffee runs and lunch out. This is resulting in more ‘do-it-yourselfers’ in the kitchen.” Hence, the continued run on dairy ingredients needed for recipes.
DELI
Since peaking with a 15.9% increase in sales year over year during the lockdown surge week of March 15, numbers for the deli department have been discouraging including four consecutive weeks of sales decreases year-to-year of more than 20%. For the week ending April 19, deli was down 25.5% from last year. Random-weight deli meat sales were slightly negative Easter week, but recovered slightly to +0.8% over the comparable week in 2019.
Deli cheese was a bright spot, up 5.2% from last year — but that number is down from the double-digit weekly increases the category has seen since March 15. “Just like seen in deli meat, packaged cheese increased significantly more, at 22.1%,” said Angela Bozo, education director with IDDBA. “That is a lot lower than the gains we had been seeing over these past few weeks, but we have to keep in mind the Easter 2019 impact. Additionally, we’re seeing the positive impact of pre-slicing deli cheese for grab-and-go availability.”
BAKERY
As many retailers have closed or reduced their in-store bakery offering, sales for the in-store bakery were off by more than 32% versus those during the same week last year. On the plus side, packaged baked goods — i.e., the “bread aisle” and packaged cookies and crackers — continue to sit comfortably above last year’s sales (at 5.2% and 4.7% gains, respectively).
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Other baked goods, including packaged cookies and crackers in fixed weight packages, continued to track well ahead of 2019, despite going up against Easter 2019. Following the stock-up weeks in mid-March, both cookies and crackers tracked about 10% ahead of the comparable week in late March and early April, but have dropped to single digits the third week of April. Sales may be affected by America’s baking craze, with baking aisle sales continuing to be highly elevated, up 28.6% over the comparable week in 2019.