According to preliminary estimates by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), world olive oil production is expected to rebound by at least 600,000 tonnes in the coming crop year (2023/2024) after a sharp drop in production in the 2022/2023 crop year. Production is expected to reach 3.20 million tonnes, up +24% from last year’s historically poor harvest and close to the five-year average (3.14 million tonnes).
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European Union countries are expected to produce 2.03 million tonnes of olive oil (up from 1.50 million tonnes in 2022/2023), slightly above the five-year average of two million tonnes. Tunisia is also expected to see an increase in production, with an estimated 250,000 tonnes, up from 180,000 tonnes last year and almost +10% above the five-year average (228,000 tonnes).
In Turkey, the USDA expects production to fall to 280,000 tonnes, down from last year’s record 380,000 tonnes. However, this is still almost +14% above the five-year average (246,400 tonnes).
In addition to improved production, the USDA also expects global olive oil consumption to rise to 2.9 million tonnes, as “current year’s low stock limits total supplies in 2023/2024”. Imports of olive oil into the United States are expected to remain unchanged at 400,000 tonnes.
