According to the analysis of Certified Origins’ latest Olive Oil Market Report, since December 2024 the olive oil market has continued to experience price declines across most Mediterranean countries, with Italy as a notable exception.
According to ISMEA, the leading Italian commodity trade monitor platform, the evaluation of the Italian extra virgin olive oil in 2025 remains substantially in line with 2024, fundamentally immune to the forces responsible for halving the price of olive oil produced in other regions.
Here is a snapshot from mid-January, with prices from three major producing countries in the Mediterranean during the second week of January:
- Spain: 4.50 Eu/Kg
- Greece: 5.60 Eu/Kg
- Tunisia: 4.00 Eu/Kg
And the past three months’ trend for Italian extra virgin olive oil:
- November 24: 8.73 Eu/Kg
- December 24: 9.45 Eu/Kg
- January 25: 9.50 Eu/Kg
The combination of heat and water scarcity in its southern regions, the effects of Xyella, and the natural cycle of rest for the olive tree could slide Italy from being the second largest producer in the world to the fifth or even sixth position, surpassed by Spain, Greece, Portugal, Tunisia, Morocco, and Turkey.
After two years of narrowing price gaps in the higher end of the market, we may see a return to historical trends. Italian extra virgin olive oil is poised to lead the market once again with the highest valuations, while Spain may widen the gap, reclaiming its status as the key volume player and value trendsetter for most of the other producing countries.
OLIVE OIL EXPECTED TOTAL PRODUCTION IN 2025
According to the IOC and an article from the Olive Oil Times analyzing their data, we could expect a total production of 3,375,500 tons of olive oil for the 2024/2025 harvest year across all grades. If these estimates are accurate, this would represent an increase of approximately +32% compared to the 2023/2024 harvest.
Production in EU countries is set to rise by +29%, while non-EU countries could see an increase of +36%. All EU countries except Italy are showing growth compared to the previous year. Countries such as Tunisia and Turkey project record harvests in 2024/2025 and are making a decisive contribution to global production.
However, if we compare the average crop year results from 2024–2018 versus crop 2019–2023, we can also see that olive oil production worldwide has moved up by just 1% in the last 5 years, and in Europe it has even fallen by –8%.
EUROPEAN COMMISSION OUTLOOK: CLIMATE AND CONSUMPTION
The annual report “EU Agricultural Outlook“, in which the European Commission presents its forecasts of agricultural developments over the next 10 years, also touches on olive oil production and consumption trends.
The EU foresees a slight increase of 1.2% in Spain and 1% in Portugal’s olive farming output for the next decade, thanks to new super-intensive plantations. In Greece and Italy, on the other hand, we could see a decline in the hectares dedicated to olive farming, which could lead to further decreases in production during the same period.
Farming experts believe that the future of olive oil in Europe will depend significantly on how each country adapts and manages climatic changes, including water shortages and temperature anomalies. The EU Commission reports also on local olive oil consumption. In 2010, 1.79 million liters were consumed, while between 2020 and 2024, the average consumption in the EU was 1.33 million liters.
The forecasts for the next few years indicate a relatively stable trend, with an expected usage of around 1.2 million (a decrease of 0.3%) in the EU zone. This projection reflects a balance between declining consumption in Spain, Greece, and Italy and new opportunities in regions where this condiment has not yet become a pantry staple.
