Despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty, Cerved’s latest Industry Forecast suggests that Italian businesses are poised for a revenue rebound in the next two years. Real revenues are expected to grow by 1.2% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, marking a cumulative 1.7% rise compared to 2023. This recovery is attributed to a revival in exports and domestic consumption, reversing the 0.9% contraction seen in 2024—particularly in the fashion and automotive sectors.
The turnaround is driven by stronger household incomes, easing inflation, and the continued expansionary stance of European monetary policy. However, risks remain, particularly from the possibility of new U.S. tariffs, which could threaten key Made-in-Italy products like mineral water, extra virgin olive oil, and Prosecco—sectors heavily reliant on the U.S. market.
These insights come from Cerved’s December 2024 report, which analyzes Italian corporate revenue trends up to 2026, with a focus on sectoral variations.
EXPORTS AND CONSUMPTION: A TWO-SCENARIO OUTLOOK
Cerved’s model considers a range of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. It outlines two potential scenarios: the base case, which expects inflation to stabilize, boosted by infrastructure investments from the Next Generation EU program and ongoing easing of ECB monetary policy, despite geopolitical risks; and a downside scenario, where further escalation in the Middle East and renewed energy market disruptions could dampen economic activity, affecting investments and consumption.
2024 DOWNTURN AND REVENUE FORECASTS FOR 2025-2026
Following a post-pandemic bounce, Italian companies saw a 0.9% real revenue contraction in 2024, alongside a 2.2% nominal decline. This discrepancy highlights companies’ efforts to absorb price hikes in order to preserve volumes. While the service sector remained resilient, most others—except agri-food—struggled.
Looking ahead, in the base case scenario, Italian firms are expected to recover, with real revenues rising by 1.2% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026. This would bring cumulative growth to 1.7% compared to 2023, driven by the rebound in exports and consumption. However, in the more pessimistic scenario, which assumes an escalation of current conflicts and renewed inflationary pressures, real revenues could contract by 1.1% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026, bringing the total decline over the three-year period to 2.5%.
U.S. TARIFF THREATS ITALIAN FOOD EXPORTS
The United States, Italy’s second-largest trade partner, poses a key risk. Any new tariffs imposed on European goods could severely impact several Italian export sectors. Cerved’s analysis identifies transportation (17.9% of exports to the U.S.), chemicals and pharmaceuticals (13.8%), electromechanics (11.7%), consumer goods (12.9%), fashion (9.8%), and home goods (9.1%) as the most vulnerable.
Twenty sectors rely heavily on U.S. exports, with five sending over a quarter of their exports across the Atlantic: defense systems, mineral water and soft drinks, aircraft, marble, and oils and fats. Another four sectors ship over a fifth: shipbuilding, eyewear, wine, and earth-moving machinery. For products like mineral water, beverages, olive oil, and Prosecco, the U.S. remains the primary importer.
EU-MERCOSUR TRADE AGREEMENT: LIMITED IMPACT FOR ITALY
In December, the EU signed a trade deal with Mercosur countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay), which, once ratified, will eliminate 90% of tariffs on traded goods. Italy runs a trade surplus with the bloc, totaling €856 million, having exported €5.6 billion in goods while importing €4.6 billion in the first nine months of 2024. Brazil is Italy’s top Mercosur partner, followed by Argentina. However, trade with Mercosur accounts for just over 1% of Italy’s total foreign trade, with key imports including agricultural raw materials and marble from Brazil, while exports consist mainly of pharmaceuticals, machinery, chemicals, and automotive parts.