According to the world scenario designed by the forecasts of the International Wine & Spirits Research (Iwsr) study for Vinexpo, global wine consumption will fall sharply in 2020 and, despite rapid growth in 2021, will return to 2019 levels only in 2024.
Moreover, the challenges that threatened the global wine industry even before the pandemic will add to the economic consequences of the Covid-19 health emergency. From the trade war between the USA and China, which also involves Europe, to Brexit, without forgetting global warming.
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WORLD CONSUMPTION IN NUMBERS
According to Iwsr Ceo, Mark Meek, 2020 will be a watershed year. If the global drop in wine consumption is expected to reach -13.6% in volume (-15% for sparkling wines), a fast growth is expected in 2021. It should be part of a recovery that will bring consumption levels more or less in par in 2024. But it will not be a full recovery. In fact, between 2014 and 2019 the global wine consumption grew by +0.2%, while from now until 2024 an overall decrease of -0.9% is expected.
THE WINE GLOBAL SCENARIO: FUTURE TRENDS
According to Iwsr forecasts, the phenomenon of premiumisation will become stronger in European markets, “drink less, drink better” being the guiding concept. In the USA, on the other hand, particular attention will be paid to the “ready to drink” trend. This will be true for all alcoholic beverages, including wine; new packaging formats will be more practical and smart.
E-commerce is expected to grow a lot all over the world. In many countries, from Italy to the USA, online shopping was characterized by a strong acceleration during the pandemic lock down. E-commerce will also gain market share in the wine sector: especially in China, where 30% of wine and alcohol sales are already made through the web. In 2024, e-commerce wine global turnover is expected to exceed 45 billion dollars.