World production of durum wheat is expected to fall by 9% in 2019, with negative production peaks of -32% in the USA, -27% in North Africa, -11% in Canada and -10% in Europe. These are the first data released in the forecasts for the 2019-2020 commercial campaign – provided by research company Areté and presented in Foggia on the occasion of the fourth edition of Durum Days, the international event that brings together the entire supply chain of durum wheat and pasta.
In Europe the decline in production areas, together with that of stocks, will significantly increase the need for imports, which are expected to rise by 71% for the coming marketing year. As a result, wheat exports from North America are expected to rise sharply to 68% on total exports. In particular, exports of Canadian wheat – a major producer and exporter country – will increase by an estimated 10% in the next campaign.
FORECASTS FOR DURUM WHEAT PRODUCTION IN ITALY
As far as the Italian production forecasts are concerned, Crea institute estimates a -6.5% decrease in the surface area, which will lead to an area used for durum wheat of 1.2 million hectares. The heavy rains, hailstorms and temperature fluctuations of the last few weeks could create the conditions for further falls in production. The analysis also shows that the growth trend of organic durum wheat cultivation areas is continuing, as well as those of supply chain contracts. Crea also recorded a decrease in the use of certified seeds of -12% compared to 2018.