The World Bank has released its Commodity Market Outlook 2025, highlighting continued volatility in global coffee prices. Despite a slight pullback in April, prices remain elevated after reaching record nominal highs earlier in the year.
Arabica surged to $9 per kilogram between February and March, while Robusta approached $6 per kilogram. Prices dipped in April, but the broader trend remains upward. In the first quarter of 2025, Arabica rose 26 percent quarter-on-quarter — nearly double its level a year earlier. Robusta gained 12 percent over the same period, up two-thirds from 2024.
Global production climbed to 170 million bags in the 2023–24 season and is projected to reach 173 million in 2024–25. However, output remains below 2020–21 levels. Persistent supply deficits from the 2021–22 season, combined with robust demand growth, continue to underpin price strength.
The World Bank forecasts Arabica prices to rise more than 50 percent year-on-year in 2025, before falling 15 percent in 2026, as output in Colombia — the world’s second-largest Arabica producer — recovers. Robusta is expected to gain nearly 25 percent this year, with a 9 percent correction anticipated next year.
Weather remains a key uncertainty. Low rainfall and high temperatures earlier this year pose risks to Brazil’s 2025–26 harvest, a factor that could keep markets on edge.