Donald Trump’s imminent decision to impose tariffs on European exports could result in severe financial repercussions for Italian businesses, potentially costing up to €100 billion, with Italy’s Food & Beverage sector among the hardest hit.
European exporters could face at least an additional €4 billion in costs due to a 10% tariff on goods (source: Prometeia), with exports possibly plunging by as much as 16.8% (source: Confartigianato).
The US remains the second-largest market for Italian goods, with exports valued at €53.3 billion as of October 2024. The agri-food sector, in particular, is bracing for impact, as Italian food and beverage exports to the US surged by 19% in 2024. As was the case during Trump’s first term, select Italian food products could once again be added to the tariff blacklist.
Stefano Berni, Director General of the Grana Padano PDO Consortium, recalls the damaging effects of the 25% tariffs imposed on Italian goods in Trump’s first presidency. “It was a difficult time,” he told Panorama. “Ready products that couldn’t be sold led to a 10% drop in wholesale prices.” The US is a critical market for Italian cheese, and Berni warns that new tariffs could trigger a dangerous ripple effect. “Consumers seeking quality will either pay more or sacrifice their experience, while counterfeiting will be encouraged.”
However, the full impact remains uncertain, as other variables come into play, including the speculative hoarding of containers—already underway—to stockpile goods for resale at inflated prices, as well as the potential resumption of dockworker strikes in the US.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni may seek to broker a deal with Trump to mitigate the damage, but for now, Italian businesses remain on edge, waiting for clarity.
