Italian food exports continue to set new records. After surpassing €58 billion in 2024, marking a 9% increase, sales of processed food products abroad posted a further 6% rise in the first half of 2025. While positive, this growth masks an increasingly fragile commercial geography, according to Nomisma research firm’s Observatory.
EXPORTS, PRICE EFFECTS, AND MARKET DYNAMICS
Part of the growth is driven by price effects: olive oil, for instance, saw a 43% increase in value in 2024, despite a more modest 6% rise in volume. A similar trend emerged in H1 2025 for coffee and chocolate, affected by sharp rises in their respective commodities (+73% for coffee and +27% for cocoa). By volume, sectors such as dairy, bakery, and bottled water performed well, whereas wine, vinegar, and spirits saw declines.
GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT AND STRATEGIES
“The global landscape shows a disruption in food trade, primarily due to the US administration’s trade policies,” notes Denis Pantini, Nomisma’s head of agrifood. These effects extend beyond direct trade with the United States, impacting other markets as well. “Developing new markets as part of a diversification strategy has become a priority in this new geopolitical context, a goal that should also be supported institutionally,” Pantini adds.
KEY EXPORT MARKETS FOR ITALIAN FOOD
Nomisma simulations indicate that 15% tariffs in the US particularly penalize key supply chains such as wine, pasta, and dairy. The situation in three strategic export markets for Italian food is as follows:
- United States: Imports grew 12% in H1 2025, with Italy remaining the third-largest supplier (6% share). However, after a strong start in Q1 (+14%), Q2 saw a slowdown in crucial segments: wine dropped from +17% to -10%, and cheeses fell from +18% to -41%.
- Spain: One of Europe’s most dynamic markets, with Italian food and beverage imports up 13% in the semester, led by cheeses (+65%) and bakery (+55%).
- Poland: Italy’s third-largest EU outlet, with a 16% increase in H1 2025, driven by strong performance in chocolate, baked goods, and cheeses.
COMMON STRATEGIES AND THE ROLE OF ASSOCIATIONS
“The data confirm the resilience of Italian exports, but also highlight the need for coordinated strategies: without more open markets and strong institutional and industry leadership, Italy risks losing ground in key segments,” warns Alberto Volpe, Director General of the Italia del Gusto Consortium. The importance of synergies between companies and regions is clear for strengthening global competitiveness: “Italian export strength lies in combining quality and diversification. In the new global scenario, competitiveness will increasingly depend on coordinated strategies and a constant market presence,” concludes Pantini.