Italy’s durum wheat production is projected to surpass 4.2 million tonnes in the 2024–25 season, up 20% from last year and 12% above the five-year average. The increase reflects a 9.5% rise in planted area, reaching 1.28 million hectares, according to Istat, and optimal growing conditions in key regions including Sicily, Basilicata, and parts of Puglia.
The forecast, unveiled in Foggia at the 2025 edition of the Durum Days initiative, marks the first official outlook for the new season. The event is backed by leading producer associations including Assosementi, CIA–Agricoltori Italiani, Confagricoltura, Copagri, and Fedagripesca Confcooperative, with technical input from CREA and Areté, and sponsorship from Corteva Agriscience and Syngenta.
Globally, durum wheat production is expected to dip slightly following last year’s gains, driven by sharp declines in major exporters—Canada (-7%), the US (-9%), and Mexico (-78%)—according to Areté analysts. These losses are unlikely to be fully offset by stronger output in importing regions such as the EU (+10%) and North Africa (+15%).
While higher European production could ease upward pressure on Italian prices, tight global inventories and falling exports leave the market vulnerable to renewed volatility should importers’ harvests underperform.
