Donald Trump has renewed the prospect of imposing 25% tariffs on European agri-food exports, reigniting trade tensions between Washington and Brussels. At the first meeting of his new administration, Trump cited a U.S. trade deficit of $300 billion with the EU—an estimate sharply disputed by Brussels, which puts the figure closer to $50 billion. European Commission Executive Vice President Stéphane Séjourné condemned the proposed tariffs as “unjustified” and vowed a firm response.
TARIFFS COST TO CONSUMERS AND ITALIAN EXPORTS
A 25% tariff on Italian food and drink exports to the U.S. could drive up costs for American consumers by as much as €2 billion, according to an analysis by Coldiretti, Italy’s largest agricultural association. If the levies extend across the entire sector, the potential losses would be severe: wine exports alone could take a €500 million hit, olive oil €240 million, pasta €170 million, and cheese €120 million.
Coldiretti warns that higher prices would dampen demand, replicating the effects of tariffs imposed during Trump’s first term. Between 2019 and 2020, Italian food exports to the U.S. fell sharply, with fruit down 15%, processed meat and seafood 28%, cheese and jams 19%, and liqueurs 20%, according to Istat data. While Italian wine initially escaped tariffs, sales still fell by 6%.
BRUSSELS SEEKS TO DIVERSIFY TRADE PARTNERS
The European Union is expanding trade agreements elsewhere to lessen its reliance on the U.S. market. The Mercosur deal—finalized in Montevideo between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the leaders of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay—is set to be debated in the European Parliament and the EU Council. At the same time, Brussels is accelerating negotiations with India on a long-awaited free trade pact, reviving discussions that began in 2007 and stalled in 2015 before resuming in 2022. EU-India trade now exceeds €137 billion annually.
A THREAT TO ITALIAN EXPORTS
“The imposition of tariffs on Italian food and drink would be deeply concerning, particularly given the significance of the U.S. market,” said Coldiretti President Ettore Prandini. “While Italian exports to the U.S. fell by 3.6% last year, agri-food exports grew by 17%, highlighting the sector’s resilience. Italian food is a global economic symbol, and we urge diplomatic efforts to prevent a trade war that would hurt businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic.”