In 2024, Italy’s durum wheat production is poised to hover around 3.5 million tons, marking a decrease of 10-15% compared to the long-term average, with an 8% annual drop, as per forecasts by the Italian research institute, Crea. This decline stems significantly from adverse climatic conditions, exacerbated by reduced cultivated acreage and geopolitical tensions, particularly affecting the southern cultivation belts. Sicily is currently facing a particularly dire situation due to drought, while Apulia and Basilicata have seen their production potential compromised.
These insights emerged from preliminary analyses presented at the 2024 edition of Durum Days, a pivotal international event convened by key industry players, hosted by the Foggia Chamber of Commerce in Apulia. This presentation occurs just shy of a month before harvest operations commence in the fields.
Internationally, as per Areté analysts, global durum wheat production is slated for a rebound in 2024, with an anticipated increase of approximately 10%, propelled by heightened outputs in major exporting nations, including Canada (+40%), the United States (+25%), Russia (+20%), and Turkey (+5%). These enhancements are set to bolster global durum wheat stocks, potentially exceeding +8 or +10%. However, final stocks are anticipated to remain below long-term averages.
This broader narrative elucidates why prices are expected to maintain levels below the recent peak, though still historically elevated, as outlined in the economic analysis.