A Mediobanca study on Italy’s olive oil sector, published last August, examines the country’s 50 largest joint-stock companies with revenues exceeding €20 million in 2022.
Global olive oil production in the 2023/2024 period is forecast at 2.4 million tonnes, down 6.3% from the previous two years, following a dramatic 24.9% drop from the record 3.4 million tonnes produced in 2021/2022. The European Union accounts for 71.7% of global output, with Spain leading (roughly a third of the total), followed by Italy (12%), and Greece (8.1%, ranking fifth). In 2023, Spain topped the export rankings, shipping 781,000 tonnes worth €4.5 billion. Italy came second (338,000 tonnes, €2 billion), with Greece in third place (241,000 tonnes, €1.3 billion).
Half of Italy’s olive oil exports go to three main markets: the United States (29.1% of total volumes in 2023), Germany (11.2%), and Spain (10.6%). Italy’s imports primarily come from Spain (41.7%), Greece (38.7%), and Tunisia (10.1%).
SOARING OLIVE OIL PRICES
A global supply shortage has triggered a dramatic surge in extra virgin olive oil prices between 2019-2020 and 2023-2024. Spanish production costs have quadrupled, rising from €2.04/kg to €8.12/kg, while Greek prices have soared 3.6 times (from €2.14/kg to €7.78/kg). Italian prices, now the highest in the market, have risen 2.7 times (from €3.46/kg to €9.33/kg). In the first five months of 2024, Italian prices increased by 6%, while Spanish and Greek prices declined by 7.2% and 8.9%, respectively.
Price hikes have dented global consumption, which fell to 2.7 million tonnes in 2023-2024, a 4.8% drop from the previous year. Italy remains the largest consumer, at 415,000 tonnes, despite a 13.3% decline, followed by the United States (368,000 tonnes, up 0.3%) and Spain (350,000 tonnes, down 2.7%). Per capita consumption is highest in Spain and Greece, at 7.5kg per person, with Italy close behind at 7.1kg. Italy also leads the world in imports, bringing in 510,000 tonnes, worth €2.5 billion.
ITALY’S INDUSTRY: OUTLOOK AND GROWTH
Italy’s leading olive oil producers anticipate a 9.5% increase in total sales for 2024, with domestic growth (10.4%) outpacing international markets (6.8%). Investments are expected to surge by 53.6%, with marketing spending set to rise from 0.3% of revenue in 2023 to 0.5% in 2024.
In 2023, Italian producers posted a 24.5% increase in revenues, compared to 2022, buoyed by an 18.1% rise in exports.
RISING PRICES, FALLING VOLUMES
According to data from Mediobanca’s research department, based on NIQ figures, the average price of olive oil in large retail chains reached €6.25 per liter in 2022-2023, up 28.6% from 2021-2022. The steepest price hikes were in lower-cost segments: non-extra virgin olive oil rose 36.4% (to €5.73 per liter), EU-sourced extra virgin olive oil increased 32.8% (€5.67 per liter), and non-EU extra virgin olive oil climbed 31% (€5.49 per liter). Correspondingly, these categories saw the sharpest declines in sales volumes, down 17.1%, 11%, and 12.7%, respectively.
Price increases were more restrained for premium products: 100% Italian extra virgin olive oil rose 17.3%, reaching €7.61 per liter, while PDO and PGI extra virgin olive oils saw a modest rise of 4.8%, with prices reaching €11.95 per liter.