In the years to come, a drastic and historical change is expected as to the nationality of wine lovers around the world. Those who used to drink very little will begin to drink more and vice versa. The leadership of some countries will remain unchanged, but there may be unexpected growth from new citizens.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. First and foremost, good news for the entire wine sector, where the market should grow at a rate of 3.7% over a four-year period, meaning that in 2018 a huge 32.78 million bottles will be opened around the world. The forecast looks good, but Italy won’t have that much to celebrate about. As mentioned above, come 2018, Italy will be bumped off the podium for biggest wine consuming nations, having been outdone by Germany. The Germans, notoriously known for being huge fans of various beers and lagers, are proving their love of Bacchus, with a rate of wine drinking that has been constantly and steadily climbing for some seasons now. Get your calculators out and let’s look at the numbers: in 2018, the IWSR study claims that the Germans will consume approximately 3.3 million bottles of wine, more than the Italians who won’t go over the 3.28 million bottle mark. The loss of the bronze medal though will not be as much down to a boom in sales in Germany – where, in the four year period examined, there was a modest increase of 1%, mostly in the sparkling wine sector – as a steady decline on the Italian market. Consumption in Italy will see a decrease of 5%, mostly in retail channels, which can be ascribed to the lingering economic crisis as well as the consequences of the strict legislation applied to drink driving. It must be noted however, that at a per capita level, Italy holds firmly onto the top place it shares with France at 45 litres of wine per person where German only manages 36 litres each. Things aren’t perfect on the French market either and the number of corks pulled will decrease by 2.8% in the next four years. Italy’s transalpine neighbours won’t lose second place though, France remains just behind the Usa which holds onto the top place it earned two years ago when it snatched what had been France’s place for decades to be the country where most wine is drunk. On the American market, in fact, a serious increase in consumption is expected, with growth around 11%, which will see them achieve a record level of 45 million bottles despite a lower per capita rate (12 litres) when compared to other countries. Prospects look good for China too, where wine will be on the increase from 24.8% again (unlike the spirit sector which, on the contrary, will see a decrease of 2.8%), and for Britain, where the ISWR claims that wine consumption will increase by 5.5% to 1.7 million bottles.
This would be the end of a negative trend that saw a swift fall of 10.4% between 2009 and 2013. This is excellent performance that will boost the alcohol market in the United Kingdom, where even ‘cousin’ beer is not doing well over: after nine years of constant losses, in 2014 it managed to scrabble back with a weak 1.3% increase on the previous year. This all leads us to think then, that in the not too distant future, wine may become the favourite alcoholic beverage among the queen’s subjects. Good news indeed for Italian bubbly producers, seeing as the segment that will see the most growth will be sparkling wine, which has shown a sturdy 12.2% increase. Here’s hoping that the ‘bubble’ doesn’t implode at any point and these estimates are accurate.
