Geopolitical instability is increasingly impacting the global food trade, with international conflicts and trade barriers creating significant hurdles for the Made in Italy sector. Following a record year in 2025, when Italian food exports reached approximately 73 billion euros, the industry is now facing a slowdown, with growth in the first half of 2026 decelerating to just 0.6 percent. This shift highlights a growing vulnerability in supply chains, making the quest for food sovereignty a top priority.
The impact of global instability on Italian f&b exports
According to Paolo De Castro, Professor of Agricultural Economics and President of Nomisma research firm, the current uncertainty is forcing businesses to rethink their strategies. Rising costs for fertilizers, energy, and transportation, combined with trade tensions, are putting pressure on profit margins. The US market, which accounts for 8 billion euros in Italian food and beverage products, remains essential but increasingly complex due to trade policies. Producers of high-value items such as wine, cheese, oil, and charcuterie are particularly exposed to these price fluctuations and market shifts.
Leveraging innovation and AI for future growth
To remain competitive, the Italian industry must pivot toward high-tech solutions. The integration of artificial intelligence and precision agriculture is no longer optional; it is a fundamental shift in how firms manage production, forecast demand, and reduce operational costs. By leveraging the recent Next Generation EU program’s investments—which have injected nearly 8 billion euros into agri-food supply chains—businesses are better positioned to enhance productivity. De Castro emphasizes that while competing on price is difficult, Italy’s true advantage lies in its commitment to quality and distinctive products.
Adapting to a changing global landscape
Diversification is the immediate response to current volatility, with markets such as South America, Mexico, Asia, and the Gulf region gaining importance. However, the goal of food sovereignty is not total self-sufficiency, but rather the ability to identify and mitigate strategic dependencies. Preparing for potential crises is essential to ensuring that global tensions do not compromise the reach and value of authentic Italian products on the international stage.